Abstract
The optimal allocation of crops to different parcels of land is a problem of paramount practical importance, not only to improve food and feed production, but also to address the challenges posed by climate change. However, this optimization problem is inherently complex due to the large number of agricultural sites available which generates a vast search space that renders traditional optimization techniques impractical. Moreover, as maximizing average production may generate solutions characterized by high year-by-year instability and lead to large and unrealistic cultivated areas, it is necessary to optimize crop allocation considering several objectives at the same time. In order to tackle this complex optimization problem, we propose a multi-objective approach, simultaneously maximizing the average production, minimizing the year-on-year production variance, and minimizing the total cultivated surface. The approach relies on an established multi-objective evolutionary algorithm, and employs a machine learning model able to predict crop production from weather and irrigation conditions, trained on historical data, making it possible to tackle allocation problems of large size. The proposed approach is compared to a quadratic programming algorithm tailored to the target problem. A case study focusing on the allocation of soybean crops in the European continent for the years 2000-2023 shows that the proposed methodology is able to identify informative trade-offs between the three conflicting objectives considered, and identify realistic and meaningful crop allocations for supporting stakeholders' decisions.