Résumé
Between 2022 and 2025, nearly 130,000 confirmed monkeypox (mpox) cases, including over 280 deaths, were reported to the World Health Organization (WHO) from 130 countries and territories, prompting the WHO to declare it a public health emergency of international concern on two occasions. Hence, to enable a scientific approach to prevention and control, transmission dynamics through mathematical modeling must be elucidated. Through a comprehensive literature review on the modeling of mpox transmission dynamics, this study indicates that existing research primarily extends the susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) modeling framework and largely focuses on the 2022 global outbreak. The analysis revealed significant variations in mpox virulence, particularly dependent on the subtypes, and variations according to the descending order of clades: Ib>Ia>IIa>IIb. Interpersonal transmission capacity was notably higher for clade II than for clade I, highlighting geographical disparities, with the highest transmission capacity in the Americas, moderate in Europe and Oceania, and the lowest in Asia. In contrast, Africa maintained consistently low but non-declining transmission levels. Furthermore, the study confirmed significant co-infection patterns between mpox and sexually transmitted diseases, such as Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) and syphilis, along with evidence of synergistic transmission interactions among multiple pathogens. This study provides crucial modeling evidence for mpox regulation. By quantifying high-risk populations, evaluating intervention effectiveness, and identifying the risks associated with subtypes and geographic areas, this study offers a comprehensive reference for understanding the interface between model complexity and practical application. These advancements have enhanced the strategic focus and precision of public health responses during outbreaks.