Résumé
Antimicrobial resistance is increasing worldwide. Therefore, the WHO has recommended the monitoring of resistance rates and the implementation of antibiotic stewardship programs. The aim of this study was to evaluate the correlation between antimicrobial consumption and resistance emergence in Escherichia coli at Nîmes University Hospital from 2014 to 2019. This correlation was assessed using a dynamic regression model. In addition, the predictive capacity of this model was evaluated by comparing the predicted values with those observed over 2019 in order to validate its routine use as a teaching tool. During the study period, an increase in antimicrobial consumption was observed, excepted for fluoroquinolones use which decreased. However, only the rates of resistance to fluoroquinolones, cephalosporins and aminoglycosides decreased, the others remained stable. The correlation analysis showed that the decrease in fluoroquinolone consumption had a significant impact on the decrease in these resistance rates. Moreover, the increase in broad-spectrum antibiotic consumption did not appear to have an impact yet. We assumed that the consumption thresholds necessary for the selection of resistant bacteria had not yet been reached. The analysis of the predictions for the year 2019 showed a margin of error ranging from 8 to 34%, requiring the careful use of these models as tools implemented in an antimicrobial stewardship program.