Abstract
: Floods cause major damage and disruptions worldwide. In France, floods affect one resident in four and one job in three and were responsible for around 30 billion euros of economic damage over the last 30 years. Yet, more and more people are choosing their residence in risk-prone areas in order to benefit from natural amenities (coastal zones, rivers, no-build landscapes) and lower real estate prices, next to the local infrastructures (school, sports facilities) which are often present in these areas. This work focuses on the individual choices of residence and the trade-offs that households make between amenities and flood risks. To do so, we propose a Choice Experiment approach to estimate risk and amenity values during residence choice, while taking into account attitudes, perception and information in relation to flood risks. Second, in order to predict the evolution of populations in risk-prone areas, we propose the dynamic modelling of mobility. The model will be based both on the estimation of mobility factors and a conceptualization of individual decisions related to residence change. Finally, we will evaluate the effectiveness of zoning and information policies on floods in France, using cost-efficiency and cost-benefit methods, and compare them with other prevention policies.