Abstract
The aim of this thesis project is to construct a set of numerical models for testing and constraining the impact of environmental forcings on fault activation and seismicity in Eastern Paris Basin and near the Cigéo site, on periods varying from hundreds of years to a million years. These thermo-mechanical models will allow the study of the combinations and interactions -specific to the studied zone- of different forcings, crustal & mantle structures and fault characteristics, in order to estimate their impact on existing faults stability and potential activation, as well as their seismogen potential. The considered forcings will include glacial cycles of the Fennoscandian, Celtic and Alpine ice caps (10 000 to 100 000 years), back and forth movements of Alpine ice caps (100 to 1000 years), long-term erosional/depositional patterns in the neighboring domains (Alps, Vosges, Paris Basin... from Holocene to Quaternary) and erosion pulses in fluviatile systems near the study site (linked to climatic variations models on a 10-100 years timescale et hydro-climatic models on longer timescales). These numerical models will allow the study of the impact of the forcings on specific structures observed in the Eastern Paris Basin by integrating the current knowledge (and its uncertainty) on inherited fault systems, their mechanical state (associated to past deformation accumulation) and large-scale stress state associated to the 'static' tectonic forcing.