Abstract
Recent studies based on surface observations from Sarpang area in southern-central Bhutan have estimated the Holocene slip rate of 20.8+/-8.8 mm/year. This value is based on a mean vertical uplift rate of 8.8+/-2.1 mm/year and assuming a constant frontal thrust dip angle of 25°+/-5° extrapolated from structural measurements. Since geometry of the fault is a key parameter for discerning the slip rate and its associated seismic hazard assessment, we employed near-surface geophysical approach to accurately constrain the Topographic Frontal Thrust (TFT) geometry at shallow depth. Based on proven effectiveness of near-surface geophysical techniques for studying active faults, we adopted gravity, seismic and electrical resistivity tomography.We deployed geophysical profiles at three key sites along the southern frontal areas of the Bhutan Himalayas. The first study area is in Sarpang, a small town located in southern-central Bhutan where we performed all three geophysical methods adopted. The second site is located in Phuentsholing in the south-western Bhutan, where we performed gravity and electrical resistivity survey. The third site is located between Sarpang and Phuentsholing, in the sub-district of Lhamoizingkha under Dagana district.A stochastic inversion approach was adopted to perform analysis of geophysical data collected from the above sites expect for Lhamoizingkha area. Unlike commonly used approaches based on search for the simplest model, the main advantages of this approach include its ability (1) to assess the fault geometry because no smoothing is applied, (2) to provide a measurement of the uncertainties on the obtained dip angle and (3) to allow trade-off analysis between geometric and either electrical resistivity, velocity or density properties.The stochastic inversion results from Sarpang site show a TFT that is characterized by a flat and listric-ramp geometry with a north dipping dip angle of ca 20°-30° at the upper depth of 0-5 m, steeply dipping angle of 70° in the middle 5-40 m depth and flattening with a dip angle of 20° at deeper depths. These new results allow us to estimate a minimum overthrusting slip rate of 10+/-2 mm/year on the TFT, which is about 60% of the far-field GPS convergence rate of ca 17 mm/year. Based on these constraints we propose that, in Sarpang site, significant deformation partitioning on different faults including the TFT, the Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) and the Frontal Back Thrust (FBT) cannot be ruled out. More importantly, assuming a constant slip rate, the dip angle variations constrained from the present study, corresponds to variations in the uplift rate with distance from the TFT. This, therefore, emphasizes the drawbacks in assuming constant dip angle measured from surface observations and uplift rate estimates based on terrace dating only at the front, which may significantly bias the slip rate estimation.Unlike in Sarpang, the TFT corresponds to the Main Frontal Thrust (MFT) in Phuentsholing. At this site a preliminary study suggests a MFT characterized by a flat and listric-ramp geometry. With additional terrace dating information, slip rate for the Phuentsholing area will be performed in a near future. Overall based on the stochastic inversion results, we propose a MFT geometry similar to that observed in Sarpang but with possible lateral variations in terms of deformation partitioning. In Lhamoizingkha area, the exact location of the MFT is not known. Our preliminary results suggest a complex fault trace and indicate that the MFT is located further north of the current resistivity line deployed in this area. Similar to Phuentsholing site (but contrary to Sarpang), we observed that the MFT is the most frontal structure and therefore most of the convergence in the area could be accommodated by the MFT, which is also in agreement with GPS observations.