Abstract
From a global perspective, a low-carbon path to development driven by a growth of nuclear power production raises issues about the availability of uranium resources. Future technologies allowing nuclear reactors to overcome the need for natural uranium will take time to fully deploy. To address these issues, we analyze the conditions of availability of uranium in the 21st century.The first two conditions are technical accessibility and economic interest, both related to the cost of production. We study them using a model that estimates the ultimate uranium resources (amounts of both discovered and undiscovered resources) and their costs. This model splits the world into regions and the resource estimate for each region derives from the present knowledge of the deposits and economic filtering. The output is a long-term supply curve that illustrates the quantities of uranium that are technically accessible as a function of their cost of production. We identify the main uncertainties of these estimates and we show that with no regional breakdown, the ultimate resources are underestimated.The other conditions of availability of uranium covered in our study are related to the market dynamics, i.e. they derive from the supply and demand clearing mechanism. To assess their influence, they are introduced as dynamic constraints in a partial equilibrium model. This model of the uranium market is deterministic, and market players are represented by regions. For instance, it takes into account the short-term correlation between price and exploration expenditures, which is the subject of a dedicate econometric study. In the longer term, constraints include anticipation of demand by consumers and a gradual depletion of the cheapest ultimate resources.Through a series of prospective simulations, we demonstrate the strong influence on long term-price trends of both the growth rate of demand during the 21st century and its anticipation. Conversely, the uncertainties related to the estimation of ultimate resources have limited influence. We also underline the uneven evolution of market shares between regions. Finally, particular changes in supply (production shutdown in one of the regions, for example) or in demand (irregular growth or introduction of new technology) also have a significant influence on the evolution of the long-term price or its cyclicity.