Abstract
Large carnivore populations have been recovering and recolonizing several areas in recent decades. However, their predatory behaviour often leads to conflicts with humans, resulting in preemptive or retaliatory killing of large carnivores. Direct persecution and other anthropogenic disturbances make large carnivore conservation and management in human-dominated landscapes particularly challenging. This thesis's main objective is to investigate the impact of anthropogenic factors on large carnivore persistence in human-dominated landscapes. Among all large carnivores, wolves (Canis lupus) are remarkably resilient and able to adapt to various habitat conditions. Studies assessing how anthropogenic or environmental factors affect wolf persistence and the number of individuals and understanding wolf population dynamics and demography are lacking for human-dominated landscapes. Based on long-term wolf monitoring in human-dominated landscapes of Iberia, this thesis estimates wolf occupancy and identifies potential areas for recolonization; evaluates homesite (i.e. reproduction sites) characteristics and identifies factors influencing the number of individuals in packs; and addresses the status and viability of a population by assessing its spatiotemporal dynamics, demographic parameters, and extinction probabilities.According to the developed dynamic occupancy model, wolf colonization probability was positively associated with altitude, livestock density, and unpaved road density, and negatively with the proportion of burned areas and national-regional and local road densities. Coherently, extinction probability decreased with higher unpaved road density. By evaluating the wolf range dynamics in the last twenty years in Iberia, we found occupancy and colonization probabilities to be higher in areas where wolves persisted or expanded than in areas where they went extinct or at the periphery of the species range. However, unexpected expansion fronts and stagnations observed in the last twenty years emphasize the possible effect of human-related social factors on the recovery of wolf populations and the need to assess such factors. Based on colonization and occupancy probabilities, a habitat suitability map was developed, in which priority areas for implementing conservation actions and mitigation measures are identified. By evaluating the characteristics around homesites (1, 2, and 5 km buffers) and the variations in the number of wolves, we show that refuge availability positively influences the number of adults at all buffer sizes. Human population density, paved road density, the proportion of burned areas, ruggedness, and pack density negatively influenced the number of adults, particularly at smaller homesite buffers. Although results indicate that higher refuge availability and lower unpaved road densities increase the number of pups, further research is needed to assess factors influencing the number of pups. This study reveals the importance of areas with sufficient refuge and low human disturbance for the number of wolves, particularly at homesites, since wolves can be particularly exposed and susceptible during the breeding season.The long-term monitoring study in northwestern Portugal revealed a decline in the number of wolves between 1996 and 2005, with only two of the six packs remaining at the end of this period, arguably due to direct wolf persecution and low habitat connectivity between packs. However, since 2007, wolves have been recovering and recolonizing the study area, with two core packs playing a crucial role in recovering and maintaining several neighbouring sink packs. Subsequently, sink packs facilitated dispersal through a stepping-stone process. Core packs showed higher values of group persistence, breeding success and pack sizes compared to sink packs, which went extinct over several years.