Abstract
In this thesis I set out to quantify the risk of invasion from the invasive freshwater fish, Pseudorasbora parva, at a global extent, using traditional correlative ecological niche modelling approaches with the integration of surrogate data representing introduction likelihood (Chapter I). These correlative approaches rely upon key assumptions relating to the presence or absence of local or regional adaptations, and so I subsequently tested for evidence of such adaptations in genetic lineages and in individual populations. This was achieved through analyzing climatic niche differentiation of key genetic lineages in the native and invasive ranges (Chapter II) and by conducting lab experiments comparing thermal responses of important life history traits in populations from contrasting climates (Chapter III). The initial risk assessment did not account for a key factor in invasions; namely, natural dispersal. Natural dispersal has been observed to be subject to selection in vanguard populations of invasive species, and adaptation of dispersal traits can infer additional invasive vigor, allowing the species to spread across the landscape quicker. For this reason, I quantified dispersal, activity and morphological differences, often associated with differential dispersal ability, in populations along a distance-gradient from an invasion front, in order to identify if P. parva is capable of such adaptations.The initial risk mapping study showed that large areas, beyond the current distribution of the species, are climatically suitable. These areas are mainly in North and South America, Australia and New Zealand, and constitute significant scope for spread and impact of this species. When introduction likelihood was included, N. America appears most at risk. I found no evidence to suggest that native genetic lineages represented local adaptations to their respective native climates - there was little or no differentiation of the lineages’ climatic niches in the invasive range. It was also apparent, from the niche comparisons, that the climatic niche in the invaded range constituted a significant shift, compared to the native range. The thermal responses of P. parva life history traits did not differ significantly between populations from a strongly seasonal continental climate and a mild temperate maritime climate. The overall reproductive output of females did not vary according to breeding season temperature, however, temporal reproductive strategy showed a strong response, with lower temperatures inducing a protracted breeding season and higher temperatures inducing rapid and intense reproductive output. The dispersal and morphology-related study identified a strong gradient of morphological change, corresponding with distance from invasion front. This demonstrates a high degree of plasticity in P. parva’s morphology in an invasion context, however this was not linked to either dispersal or activity levels, neither of which was significantly linked to distance from invasion front. Dispersal was best explained by body size, with larger fish more likely to disperse further.Whilst I found no evidence to suggest that the model predictions (Chapter I) were hampered by differentiation at either lineage or population levels, the findings of Chapter II do highlight the uncertainties surrounding the degree of conservatism in such predictions, mainly owing to the fact that past, native, distribution did not accurately predict the current invaded distribution. The results of Chapters II-IV show broad tolerances and great plasticity in P. parva, which likely underpin this species success as a pan-continental invader. The knowledge produced in this thesis provides a useful new resource for the development of management strategies for P. parva and could be usefully enhanced by the additional of analogous studies on native populations, which could help elucidate the source of the observed plasticity.