Data from: Climate change will increase forest disturbances in Europe throughout the 21st century

Marc Grünig; Werner Rammer; Cornelius Senf; Katharina Albrich; Frédéric André; Andrey Lessa Derci Augustynczik; Martin Baumann; Friedrich Bohn; Meike Bouwman; Harald Bugmann; Alessio Collalti; Irina Cristal; Daniela Dalmonech; Francois De Coligny; Laura Dobor; Christina Dollinger; Josep Maria Espelta; David Forrester; Jordi Garcia-Gonzalo; José Ramón González-Olabarria; Ulrike Hiltner; Tomáš Hlásny; Juha Honkaniemi; Nica Huber; Mathieu Jonard; Anna Maria Jönsson; Georges Kunstler; Fredrik Lagergren; Marcus Lindner; Marco Mina; Christine Moos; Xavier Morin; Bart Muys; Gert-Jan Nabuurs; Mats Nieberg; Marco Patacca; Mikko Peltoniemi; Christopher Reyer; Mart-Jan Schelhaas; Ilié Storms; Dominik Thom; Maude Toïgo; Rupert Seidl

doi:10.5061/dryad.tb2rbp0dv

Jeu de données

Data from: Climate change will increase forest disturbances in Europe throughout the 21st century

Marc Grünig, Werner Rammer, Cornelius Senf, Katharina Albrich, Frédéric André, Andrey Lessa Derci Augustynczik, Martin Baumann, Friedrich Bohn, Meike Bouwman, Harald Bugmann, …

Dryad

20/09/2025

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.tb2rbp0dv

Résumé

Forest ecology

FOS: Earth and related environmental sciences

Global change ecology

Simulation and modeling

Wildfires

Wildfires, insect outbreaks, and storms cause large pulses of tree mortality. Climate change amplifies these forest disturbances, yet their future magnitude and extent remain uncertain. Here, we simulate future forest disturbance regimes at 100m resolution across Europe, using a deep learning-based simulation framework. Our results show that forest disturbances will continue to increase throughout the 21st century, withthe disturbed area more than doubling relative to the recent past under an unabated continuation of climate change. Wildfires are the main agent driving future disturbance change. Changing disturbances result in an increase in young forests, substantially altering Europe’s forest demography. Because of their profound implications for forest carbon storage and the habitat value of forest ecosystems, disturbances should be a priority of forest policy and management.

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Titre: Data from: Climate change will increase forest disturbances in Europe throughout the 21st century
Créateurs - sans rôle: Marc Grünig - Technical University of Munich
Werner Rammer - Technical University of Munich
Cornelius Senf - Technical University of Munich
Katharina Albrich - Natural Resources Institute Finland
Frédéric André - UCLouvain
Andrey Lessa Derci Augustynczik - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Martin Baumann - Technical University of Munich
Friedrich Bohn - Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research
Meike Bouwman - Wageningen University & Research
Harald Bugmann - ETH Zurich
Alessio Collalti - Institute for Agricultural and Forest Systems in the Mediterranean
Irina Cristal - Forest Science and Technology Centre of Catalonia
Daniela Dalmonech - Institute for Agricultural and Forest Systems in the Mediterranean
Francois De Coligny - Université Montpellier 1
Laura Dobor - Czech University of Life Sciences Prague
Christina Dollinger - Technical University of Munich
Josep Maria Espelta - Centre for Research on Ecology and Forestry Applications
David Forrester - CSIRO Environment
Jordi Garcia-Gonzalo - Forest Science and Technology Centre of Catalonia
José Ramón González-Olabarria - Forest Science and Technology Centre of Catalonia
Ulrike Hiltner - ETH Zurich
Tomáš Hlásny - Czech University of Life Sciences Prague
Juha Honkaniemi - Natural Resources Institute Finland
Nica Huber - ETH Zurich
Mathieu Jonard - UCLouvain
Anna Maria Jönsson - Lund University
Georges Kunstler - Université Grenoble Alpes
Fredrik Lagergren - Lund University
Marcus Lindner - European Forest Institute Bonn
Marco Mina - Eurac Research
Christine Moos - Bern University of Applied Sciences
Xavier Morin - Université Montpellier 1
Bart Muys - KU Leuven
Gert-Jan Nabuurs - Wageningen University & Research
Mats Nieberg - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Marco Patacca - Wageningen University & Research
Mikko Peltoniemi - Natural Resources Institute Finland
Christopher Reyer - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Mart-Jan Schelhaas - Wageningen University & Research
Ilié Storms - KU Leuven
Dominik Thom - Technische Universität Dresden
Maude Toïgo - Université Bordeaux-I
Rupert Seidl - Technical University of Munich
Éditeur: Dryad
Note de subvention: 101000574 / Horizon 2020 Framework Programme 101001905 / H2020 European Research Council 101056755 / ForestPaths project 67KI21002D / Environment and Nature Conservation Future Forest
Identifiants: 99163169009311
Unité académique: Centre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive - CEFE
Langue: English
Type de ressource: Dataset