Résumé
Studies on future precipitation trends in the Mediterranean region show a possible intensification of extreme events in the coming years. A major challenge in this region is to evaluate the impact of the intensification of extreme rainfall events on the flood risk. For this, it is important to understand the impact of climate change on soil moisture since the antecedent soil moisture condition plays a key role on the runoff generation.This study focuses on 26 sites, located in the Western Mediterranean region (Italy, France, Morocco, Tunisia, and Spain), with available soil moisture, temperature, and precipitation observations. Soil moisture is simulated at local scale and hourly time step on each site using a conceptual model of soil water content balance incorporating a Green–Ampt approach for infiltration and a gravity-driven approximation for drainage (Brocca et al., 2008).The elasticity of the simulated soil moisture to different changes in precipitation and temperature is evaluated by simulating the soil moisture response to temperature and precipitation scenarios generated using a delta change method for temperature and a stochastic model (Neyman‐Scott rectangular pulse model) for precipitation.An inter-comparison of the evolution of extreme dry and humid soil conditions for each site is performed to identify regional trends.Brocca, L., Melone, F., & Moramarco, T. (2008). On the estimation of antecedent wetness conditions in rainfall–runoff modelling. Hydrological Processes: An International Journal, 22(5), 629-642.