Résumé
The aim of this paper was to assess the evolution of European vulnerability to pollinator loss inorder to determine the need for policy to protect insect pollinators. For this purpose, we studiedthe evolution of European vulnerability across three ALARM scenarios: GRAS, BAMBU andSEDG. Those scenarios included extreme policy orientations that will affect the vulnerabilityand social welfare due to pollinator loss. GRAS scenario policies are reactive to climate changewhile SEDG scenario policies are proactive. BAMBU scenario policies are simply anextrapolation of the 2005 policies. With proactive policies, by 2080 the vulnerability of agriculturefrom northern countries will decrease while that of Southern countries will not change. But withreactive policies, the vulnerability of Southern countries will decrease while that of Northerncountries will not change. The consumer welfare loss for consumers that prefer insect-pollinatedcrops as well as those that do not will decrease in Northern countries regardless of the scenarios.On the other hand, the consumer welfare loss of Southern countries will increase for consumersthat do not prefer insect-pollinated crops, while it will decrease for those that prefer insect-pollinated crops. The consumer welfare loss of people that have high preferences for insect-pollinated crops could even increase in the case of an accelerated increase in temperature.We found that insect pollinators will have an important impact in the future European agriculturewhatever the political strategy undertaken (proactive or reactive). Effective actions for insectpollinator protection or for consumer welfare protection will be necessaries. This paperdemonstrated that an effective action has to be realized locally since agriculture of Europeancountries are different and will evolve differently. Furthermore the action will be differentdepending on the impact of a pollinator decline since it will be measured either on the agriculturalindustry or on the consumer welfare depending on the countries.