Résumé
Wildfire is a keystone disturbance that structures many ecosystem functions and services. Fire regime (frequency, severity, and spatial distribution) has experienced dramatic changes in the past associated with climate and ecosystem shifts. Currently, humans are modifying wildfire regimes worldwide through land use, fire-use, and climate change. These changes have already affected biodiversity, human society, and climate change, but fire feedbacks in complex Earth systems are not, and cannot be, precisely and definitively modeled. In this context, we used expert assessment to quantify uncertainty about the societal and ecosystem consequences of past and future changes in fire regime. Quantitative questionnaires allowed us to combine expert estimates of the risk of abrupt change in fire regimes and the implications for society, biodiversity, and climate. Participating experts provided qualitative 95% confidence intervals of the response of fire regime to two IPCC warming scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) for 8 global fire regions, as well as estimates of the number, magnitude, and causes of fire regime state changes since the Last Glacial Maximum. This ongoing expert assessment aims to generate summaries of fire behavior relevant for conservation, climate, and protection of human society. We invite all qualified researchers to participate.