Résumé
We represent in a formal model a policy argument concerning the pertinence of the adoption of a restrictive environmental policy limiting the use of abundant fossil energy resources in a developing economy. This “Right-to-Develop” argument highlights the risk that such a policy may halt economic development, and therefore result in persistent environmental damages as well as consumption below potential. Confronted to a ceiling on cumulative emissions, the forward looking regulator will want to stimulate economic growth–and incidentally emissions– the more, the stricter the ceiling on pollution is. One assumption is crucial for the argument to hold: polluting fossil energy is an essential input over the early phase of economic development, but not in the later phases. Such a discontinuity could result from structural change. We provide empirical evidence on the plausibility of a discontinuity in the elasticity of aggregate output with respect to carbon dioxide emissions, using cross country data. It does not appear to be as strong as assumed in the model economy.