Abstract
Global change is currently inducing shifts in the distribution of many species, including harmful pests. In the present study, we addressed the potential future response of Xylella fastidiosa-related diseases to ongoing climate change. Using available data documenting the worlwide Xf distribution and bioclimatic data, we fitted correlative species distribution models to depict the climatic niche of harmful Xf-related diseases (e.g. Pierce’s disease). We then predicted the potential climatic suitability in Europe for these diseases under future climate conditions simulated by global circulation models considering various future scenario of greenhouse gas emissions. Models predict that some region including economically important agricultural areas (e.g. most of wine-producing regions of Western Europe) might likely experience an important increase in climatic suitability for the pathogen by the period 2040-2060. These results are crucial for European agriculture and, are important for the design of future control and monitoring strategies as well as the implementation of research projects.