Abstract
Before the plunge caused by the coronavirus crisis, the markets for tropical products in 2019 experienced a year of hesitation and procrastination. With the exception of cocoa and natural rubber, which wowed the markets at the end of the year (admittedly starting from historically low levels), a disorderly downturn was in effect. Excess supply over demand persists, all in a context marked by high volatility. Without clear expectations about the strength of the world economy in a context of trade wars and slowdown in growth, operators without a compass reacted to the information they received— here the distancing from the threat of El Niño, there the announcement of an agreement between Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana to grant cocoa producers in the two countries a 'living income differential' of $400/t. A cycle seems to be drawing to a close, of which the coronavirus will only accelerate the end. Inaugurated in 2008- 2009 during the last major surge in the food and energy markets, this cycle saw tropical products profit modestly from the rise in the prices of raw materials (except for king coffee) and remain at rather high levels, longer than most other foods. In a sense, tropical product markets are like old diesel engines: they are slow to start, but once they get going… The sustained price plateau is behind us now, and there is no point in looking in the rear view mirror. Everything needs to be rebuilt: trust, demand, and shared knowledge of what the day after tomorrow will be made.