Résumé
The end of cheap commodities? Even before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, tropical commodity markets were rising in line with most commodities. Palm oil prices were up 50% in 2021 compared to the previous year. That is +86% for palm kernel oil, +62% for coconut oil. Arabica is up 30%, as is Robusta. Rubber (TSR20) is up 26%. In a context of post-covid economic recovery, logistical bottlenecks and the occasional shortage of labour have pushed prices up. However, some products stand out. The cocoa market is struggling to clear its surpluses, with the price of the bean remaining almost unchanged (+2.4%) from one year to the next. The same applies to tea, Thai rice, and tropical wood. In this context, the surge in oil and gas prices following Russia's attack on Ukraine, but also fertilizer, sunflower oil, and wheat, are having an amplifying effect that only the more compartmentalised markets such as rice and timber are escaping for the moment. In real terms, prices are close to the peaks reached between 2006 and 2008 and could exceed them if the war continues. There are other factors besides Russian warmongering that could permanently alter the market balance and support prices. The first of these is the unilateral policies that Europe is preparing to implement in order to 'green' its agriculture and ensure that its supplies and suppliers are irreproachable in terms of environmental protection—particularly forests—and human rights. The signal is clear, even if it has yet to be given: commodities are no longer just commodities, but products that give consumers a good story to tell, even when the guns are firing in the distance.