Résumé
The prices of the main tropical commodities, which were generally up in 2021 against the backdrop of a post-Covid recovery and occasional labour shortages, have evolved in 2022 in a very disordered way. Two groups starid out. The products which, for a new consecutive year, are recording deficits ( coffee, tea, palm oil), and those marked by surpluses ( cocoa, rubber, wood). These surpluses, however modest, occur in a context of uncertainty about the prospects for global growth, which amplifies the effect on prices. In this period of central bank intervention to curb inflation and the depreciation of many currencies against the dollar, the markets have lost their bearings and are struggling to hold on to fundamentals. One stable element stands out in this jumble: betting on Chinese consumption growth to sell products, but support prices and incomes is becoming a risky bet if it has not already been lost.