Résumé
Palm oil prices have been on a sustained upward trend since the summer of 2021, and this rise is set to be accentuated by the cascading effect of the drying up of sunflower oil exports from war-torn Ukraine and Russia. The strength of the economic recovery coming out of Covid and lower than expected volumes coming to market from the top two producing countries—Indonesia and Malaysia—have put palm oil above $1,000 per tonne throughout 2021. Traditionally cheap compared to its temperate competitors, led by soya and sunflower, palm oil has seen its differential melt inexorably, in line with the ratio of available stocks to consumption. The very average performance of the Peninsula's orchards in a context of labour shortages explained in part by Covid-related restrictions propelled palm oil prices to more than $1,300 per tonne in November 2021. They were breaking through the historical ceiling of $1,500 in February 2022 when the war in Ukraine broke out. Regardless of the war in Ukraine, the rise is dramatic. In real terms, palm oil prices in 2021 have reached levels not seen for 10 years.